With 1,142 cases, Henry County has had one of the highest number of cases in the state, higher than surrounding counties. There were 183 new cases just last week, with 2 more deaths. There were only 105 new cases the week before, so it’s up considerably.

  But our state never really went down much regarding new cases, and is now rapidly going up again, especially in the 25-34 age group which now accounts for the majority of cases. There are many reasons for this, as detailed below.

  A month ago, one of the authors (Dr. Skelton) was asked how many deaths he anticipated from COVID 19. He replied 300,000 to 500,000… but obviously hoped there would be less. His estimate was based on the country’s need to reach “herd immunity,” at least 60% of the US population of 328 million (196 million) infected… with a 1.3% mortality rate resulting in 2.5 million deaths absent any public health or medical interventions. Of course, there have been interventions and public health guidance issued, although these measures have not been as effective as we would have liked.

  His estimate was reasonable given that the World Health Organization stated in March that mortality rates for those over 60 ranged from 3.6% to 14.8%, depending on age of seniors. In a March column, the other author (Jack Bernard) used the higher age adjusted WHO mortality rate (3.6%) for Americans over 60, projecting a similar number of deaths for seniors and those at risk (roughly 100 million) unless a strong pandemic public health strategy was put in place. 

  We both knew public health measures, antiviral drugs, and a vaccine could markedly lower deaths, but doubted drugs or a vaccine would be available anytime soon to counter the three surges of infections: initial, after “too soon” reopening (now), and in the Fall. This left public health mitigation efforts to reduce the death rate, including: social distancing; hand washing/disinfecting; sheltering in place; avoiding large groups; and mandated closures of non-essential businesses. 

  We did not believe those efforts alone as they are currently being done will get the ultimate number of US deaths lower than 300,000 to 500,000. Periodically, we have considered lowering the projection. But, after seeing an excellent staged opening plan from the Coronavirus Task Force rejected by many Governors and an increasing number of individuals ignoring  safe practices, we have not lowered the projection. 

  In addition, when the CDC staff attempted to issue very detailed and well-reasoned reopening guidelines based on science, they were stopped by the Trump Administration. Subsequently, the guidelines were issued, but in a watered-down form.

  Also, the Administration did not want anything done by way of public health measures contained in the guidelines which might lessen the economy from fully returning ASAP, once again placing money before lives. Obviously, per numerous polls, Trump is in trouble regarding his 2020 election chances. His only major accomplishment, a strong economy along with low unemployment, is gone.

  Regrettably, public health national, state, and local efforts… valiant as they are… as of today are overwhelmed by lack of resources, denigration of scientific evidence and a marginalized CDC. Plus, we have a President and some Governors refusing to accurately count COVID-19 deaths in some settings like meat packing plants (at least one Governor exempted them from reporting), nursing homes (not reportable in many states), and prisons (underreported due to lack of testing in city/county/state/federal jails). 

  We don’t believe that we will ever know the true COVID 19 death toll in the United States. And, it’s evident that President Trump simply does not want to know. In fact, that may well be why he has de-emphasized testing, worried about the rising number of deaths, acting as though the tests were why people were getting sick rather than the virus. 

  It’s still our fervent hope that this anti-science President will come to realize that applying scientific principles is the only way to get us out of this disabling crisis. Lies and scapegoating the Chinese, whistleblowers, experts, Governors and Democrats will not magically make the virus disappear, as he continues to believe.